U.S. to lower the size of mortgage it will guarantee

Uncle Sam is about to take a first tentative step out of the mortgage business by lowering the size of home loans that the federal government will guarantee, and it’s already hitting California neighborhoods with higher costs and bigger down payments.

The downward adjustments have ignited outcries from California politicians and sparked a campaign by the state’s largest real estate group and its national partner to extend the higher limits; they argue that the Golden State’s housing market and economy can ill-afford another setback to recovery.

“This is just going to kill us,” said Beth L. Peerce, president of the California Assn. of Realtors. “You don’t want the real estate market to get any worse than it is, and it surprises me that our congressmen and senators don’t understand that.”

But with Washington focused on slashing deficits, few observers predict any further extension of the 3-year-old policy that was intended to throw a lifeline to higher-priced housing markets. Most of the nation’s biggest mortgage lenders have already stopped making loans at the old limits, concerned that they will not be able to get them off their books before the official Saturday deadline.

The move to lower loan limits is the first major effort by the federal government to reduce its footprint in the mortgage market. The government currently supports about 90% of new mortgages — essentially propping up the home loan market after credit dried up and home sales plunged in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis.

The loan limit determines the maximum size of a mortgage that the Federal Housing Administration, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy or guarantee. So-called nonconforming jumbo loans that are offered by the private mortgage market typically require bigger down payments and carry a higher interest rate, driving up monthly payments for borrowers.

In February 2008, with the housing market and economy reeling, Congress raised the limits for the types of mortgages eligible to be insured or bought by the FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The limits, which are based on a county-by-county analysis of home values, have been extended by Congress every year since to give housing a boost.

FHA borrowers in Los Angeles and Orange counties will see loan limits drop to $625,500 from $729,750, a decline of $104,250. Other pricey areas facing the same change include San Francisco, New York and Washington.

Under the new FHA loan limits, Monterey County would see the biggest drop in the limit, falling $246,750; followed by Merced, down $201,450; Riverside, falling $164,650; San Bernardino, declining $164,650; Solano, dropping $157,300; and San Diego, down $151,250.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan limits will also follow those changes except when they call for dropping the limit below $417,000, which was the old jumbo limit for Fannie and Freddie loans. When that happens, the limits will drop to no lower than $417,000.

Real estate professionals are bracing for the policy change to hit California hard, as buyers begin learning that they may no longer be able to afford the higher-priced homes they had been considering. The California Assn. of Realtors estimates that more than 30,000 California buyers statewide will face bigger down payments, higher mortgage rates and stricter requirements under the adjustment.

Syd Leibovitch, president of Rodeo Realty in Beverly Hills, said many deals by his brokers involve loans done at the highest amount allowed under the old limits.

“It is not going to be good,” Leibovitch said. “The majority of our deals are 729-FHA loans because they are the easiest to qualify.”

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) co-sponsored a bill in early August that would allow the higher limits to stay in place for an additional two years. The real estate and mortgage industries also have been lobbying hard to keep those limits.

With the nation still recovering from the credit crisis, there is virtually no mortgage market outside the loans eligible for government guarantees. Still burned from the subprime mortgage meltdown, very few investors want to buy a mortgage unless it carries government backing, said Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance.

But as time runs out, pleas by industry groups appear to be going nowhere. The government is arguing that taxpayers can no longer afford the cost and risk of subsidizing home loans on a grand scale.

“Everybody is asking California to take one for the team,” Cecala said. “It is the largest mortgage market in the country, it is the largest state in terms of mortgage activity and it is also the highest cost, where more mortgages are made at the limit than in any other state. It is basically ground zero to a downward adjustment in the loan limits.”

The lower limits arrive at a time when lenders are eyeing borrowers more closely than ever to make sure they can make their loan payments.

Major banks are concerned about being forced to buy back loans that don’t adhere to certain standards, so qualifying for mortgages has become an increasingly onerous task, with banks demanding more paperwork and higher credit scores.

“The bottom line is Fannie and Freddie will scrutinize any loan that has any performance issue,” Cecala said, “so the way to avoid that as a lender is make sure that they are pristine.”

 

Source  latimes.com

The case for downsizing your home

Home buyers such as Bob and Janet Zych have fueled the U.S. housing market for decades.

They have excellent credit with scores that top 800, life-long careers and investment portfolios that have set them up for a comfortable retirement, they say.

But this year, “after faxing a ream of paper” about their finances, they got so fed up applying for a home loan that they simply wrote a check for their new, $85,000 vacation condo in Phoenix.

Trying to get a loan “was just a nightmare,” says Bob Zych, 65, a manager for Mohawk Industries in Omaha.

Following the greatest housing crash since the Great Depression, home lending standards have tightened to their strictest levels in decades, economists say. And people such as the Zychs and others nationwide are paying the price.

Tight home loan credit is affecting everything from home sales to household finances. Many borrowers are struggling to qualify for loans to buy homes. Others can’t take advantage of some of the lowest interest rates in 50 years because they don’t have enough equity in their homes to refinance. Those who can get loans need higher credit scores and bigger down payments than they would have in recent years. They face more demands to prove their incomes, verify assets, show steady employment and explain things such as new credit cards and small bank account deposits.

Even then, they may not qualify for the lowest interest rates.

The National Association of Realtors says lending standards are too tight and are hurting the housing industry’s recovery.

The lending industry counters that standards are where they need to be, given still-falling home prices and the shaky economy.

“It used to be anybody with a pulse could get a home loan. Now you have to be an Olympic athlete,” says Guy Cecala, of Inside Mortgage Finance.

“The pendulum has swung too far.”

Down payment amounts rise

The change is evident in the higher quality of loans held by government entities, which now buy or guarantee most new home loans.

Lenders that originate loans seek to meet their standards so that they don’t have to hold loans themselves.

Through June, single-family home loans bought by government-backed Freddie Mac, for example, had an average down payment of 29% and an average FICO credit score of 751, the agency says. That’s up from average down payments of 23% for loans originated in 2007 and average FICO scores of 707, Freddie Mac says.

FICO scores top out at 850. The national median is 711,  FICO says.   

New Federal Housing Administration loans, popular with home buyers who lack big down payments, likewise are being made to borrowers with higher credit scores.

From January through March, those loans went to borrowers with an average credit score of 704, up from 631 four years ago, FHA data show.

Even the worthiest borrowers have to put down more money than a few years ago to get the best loan terms.

Real estate website Zillow analyzed 3.6 million loan inquiries made through its website to mortgage lenders since 2008.

In July, prospective borrowers getting the best loan rates had average down payments of 28%. Three years ago, before the worst of the financial crisis, such shoppers averaged down payments of less than 24%, according to data from Zillow Mortgage Marketplace.

“The people getting loans over the last couple of years are largely pristine,” say Robert Walters, Quicken Loans chief economist. “Lenders are making sure no stone is unturned.”

A struggle to close

Sometimes, even borrowers with seemingly pristine finances are struggling to close home loans.

Stephanie, 45, and Brian Poore, 46, of Hubert, N.C., went through two lenders this year before the third extended them a loan  on an $86,000 condominium in Wilmington, N.C. The couple bought the condo for their daughters, ages 19, 16 and 15, to use during college.

The first lender went overboard on income questions, Brian Poore says, asking him to prove that he didn’t pay for room or board while living on an Army base in Iraq, where he works as a contractor.

Another lender qualified the couple for a loan, given their credit scores above 780 and other financial resources. But then the lender backed off, saying it couldn’t resell the loan to Fannie Mae because the condominium homeowners association didn’t have enough cash reserves for maintenance and repairs.

With the third lender, the Poores had to put 25% down — not the 15% they originally intended.

The process took five months. The loan was for $67,000. One of the Poores’ relatives recently bought a new car and got a $55,000 loan in less than a day, Stephanie Poore says. “I feel bad for anybody having to go through this,” she says.

The Zychs were hamstrung by lenders’ concerns  about their previous investments.

During the past five years, they  acquired three rental properties — all in Omaha — that were leased and produce a positive cash flow for the couple. When the Zychs went to buy the Phoenix condo, lenders balked, saying they had too many properties, even though their finances were solid.

“How would anybody ever get a loan if we can’t get a loan?” Bob Zych asks.

Roberta Fernandes, 24, a first-time home buyer, got a loan. But not without help. She needed almost 50% down to get a loan to buy her Miami condo in June. Fernandes is an assistant to a financial adviser at a brokerage firm. Her short work history hindered her ability to get loans with smaller down payments.

Her parents put up more than half the required down payment. Without their help, getting a loan “would have been impossible,” Fernandes says.

Jose, 40, and Ivelte Hidalgo, 35, also recently bought in Miami. Jose started a medical research consulting business in 2007. Ivelte works in the business, too.

Because they were newly self-employed, the couple were turned down by two lenders for home loans in 2008 and 2009.

They finally secured an FHA loan for a $280,000 house, which they purchased this summer. The couple put 3.5% down, the FHA’s minimum.

With higher down payment requirements and tighter standards for conventional loans, the FHA has become a major player in the home-lending market.

For the first six months of this year, almost 51% of loans to buy homes were done through the FHA. That’s up from 3.4% in 2007, says Inside Mortgage Finance.

But FHA loans aren’t always the best deal.

Although they have smaller down payment requirements than conventional loans and credit criteria that are not as strict, there are limits on how big FHA loans can get.

FHA borrowers also pay a 1% upfront fee that conventional borrowers don’t pay. And if buyers have enough money for larger down payments, they can avoid higher FHA premiums for mortgage insurance, which protects against default.

It can also take longer to get rid of mortgage insurance on an FHA loan than on a conventional loan, says Keith Gumbinger of mortgage tracker HSH.com.

Conventional loans with less than 20% down are available. However, such borrowers need mortgage insurance. In general, the lower the down payment, the more one pays in mortgage insurance. Interest rates also rise as credit scores drop.

For some properties — including those needing bigger loans, condominiums and homes in areas hard hit by the real estate crash — 20% or more down payments are the norm, says Greg McBride of Bankrate.com.

Nearly all borrowers are facing more documentation requests.

Except for a few years leading up to the real estate crash — when some borrowers got loans while providing little if any documentation of their assets and income — borrowers have long had to supply two years of tax returns, pay stubs and financial statements when applying for home loans.

Now, lenders want tax records to come directly from the IRS, as well as from borrowers. The IRS releases the records after applicants sign forms giving it permission to do so. Instead of two months of bank statements and pay stubs, lenders may want them for each pay period until the loan closes.

Howard Landa, a California physician, purchased a $900,000 home in Moraga, Calif., last year and refinanced it this year. The refinance lender wanted pay stubs for every two weeks as the loan was in process, which took almost two months.

Landa also had to explain a new Macy’s credit card line, which he opened to qualify for a discount on a suit he bought from the retailer.

When he bought the house, Landa  had almost enough money to pay cash for it. He also had an outstanding credit score of 810. Even so, the lender carefully checked his income, even requiring copies — front and back — of several $500 and $1,000 checks he deposited in his checking account after being reimbursed for travel expenses.

“It seemed like an incredible waste of my time and their money,” Landa says. “They’re trying to dot I’s and cross T’s to show that they checked 40 documents, but it doesn’t mean that they’re important documents.”

Reduced risks = fewer defaults

Higher standards do appear to be reducing loan defaults, which means fewer foreclosures in the future.

Fewer than 1.3% of loans originated in 2009 that were resold to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae went into default after 18 months, government data show. That’s down from more than 22% default rates for 2007 loans and about 3% default rates in 2002.

Avoiding defaults has become a primary goal of wary lenders, says Walters, the Quicken Loans economist.

They fear loans will go bad and the investors that buy them — such as Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae or others — will discover mistakes and sue the originating lender.

Many such lawsuits are underway.

“Our line of defense is to cross T’s 42 times and dot I’s 52 times,” Walters says. With home prices continuing to fall across much of the nation, lenders realize that any mistake “could be fatal,” he says.

Yet, the National Association of Realtors, and a number of consumer groups, say the tight standards are also a drag on the economy.

The NAR estimates that home sales — stuck at anemic levels — would jump 15% to 20% if lending standards simply returned to where they were a decade ago, before they got so loose they helped create the real estate bubble that later popped.

However, lending standards are unlikely to loosen until home prices stabilize, says mortgage loan expert Jason Kopcak of investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald. Nationwide, home prices are down  30% from their 2006 peak and are expected to fall more this year.

“The industry is basically status quo,” agrees Michael Copley, head of retail lending for TD Bank.

 

Source usatoday.com

How will Fed decision affect home loan rates?

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced it’s changing its investment strategy, which could translate into lower mortgage rates down the road, market watchers say.

The committee’s words:

To help support conditions in mortgage markets, the Committee will now reinvest principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. In addition, the Committee will maintain its existing policy of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.

 

 

What does that all mean?

Michael Lea, director of SDSU’s real estate center, said officials are basically selling off shorter-term Treasury holdings for longer-term ones and mortgage-backed securities.

“They’re changing the composition of their balance sheet,” said Lea, a past chief economist of mortgage giant Freddie Mac. “This isn’t a new round of quantitative easing. They’re reinvesting, not injecting more money into the economy.”

The decision could push down long-term interest rates, and in turn, mortgage rates.

Why is this needed when home-loan rates are historically low?

“Mortgage rates are not the problem,” Lea said. At issue, is weak demand for mortgages because of income uncertainty and unemployment coupled with tight lending guidelines.

“This will have very little impact on the average person,” Lea said. “It’s meant to signal to markets that the Feds are still trying to do something.”

Greg McBride, of financial site bankrate.com, also weighed in on Twitter.

“What will Fed’s Operation Twist do?,” wrote McBride, referring to Wednesday’s plan. “It might push down mortgage rates. But it will also squeeze bank margins, leading to lower savings yields.”

 

Source signonsandiego.com

Foreclosure filings decline, time to foreclosure increases in some states

On average it took less time to foreclose in California, Arizona, and
Nevada in June 2011, countering what has been a growing trend to extend
the foreclosure process, according to the latest report from
ForeclosureRadar.  The time to foreclose has increased on a
year-over-year basis throughout the areas covered by ForeclosureRadar.
California experienced the second most significant increase with the
average time to foreclose at 317 days, up from 261 days a year ago.

Foreclosure filing activity was down throughout the coverage area in
June 2011, with fewer foreclosure filings in all states. There were
fewer foreclosure sales, both “Back to Bank” and “Sold to 3rd Parties”,
in all areas except Oregon, which saw an uptick in activity at the
courthouse steps.

California experienced slowed foreclosure activity across the board.
Notice of Default filings fell for the third consecutive month after a
slight 1.5 percent drop in June. Notice of Trustee Sale filings were
down in June as well, with an 11.7 percent decline month-over-month and a
34.3 percent drop from June 2010. Cancellations of foreclosure sales
decreased for the second time in as many months, with a 3 percent drop
compared with May. Foreclosure sales on the courthouse steps were slower
than the prior month, with 13.4 percent fewer sales Back to Bank and
7.1 percent fewer foreclosed properties Sold to 3rd Parties.

For the first time in six months the average time to foreclose
decreased, down 7.9 percent to 317 days month-over-month, but was up
21.5 percent compared with the same time last year. Third parties
continued to resell inventory more quickly, with the time to resell down
1.5 percent month-over-month to 131 days, clearly outperforming banks,
which took an average of one hundred days longer at 231 days to resell
inventory.

Banks ‘Calling Shots’ in Distressed Markets.

From wsj.com

 

Distressed home sales are giving new meaning to the phrase the house always wins.

A new analysis by Redfin, the Seattle-based online brokerage, comes to an unlikely conclusion given the troubled housing market: The more distressed a market, the less negotiating power buyers have.

The key factor, Redfin says, is that banks are playing hardball in heavily distressed cities, in cases pricing properties well below market value (which in turn elicits multiple bids). Banks have also become experts at setting prices given the volume of listings they need to move. These factors mean that in places like San Diego buyers are much less likely to get a bank to negotiate on price than they are in a less-distressed market like Denver, according to Redfin.

                                 

                                                           (See full chart.)

“What the analysis demonstrates is that the banks are the market-makers, calling the shots on prices because they control so much of the inventory,” Glenn Kelman, Redfin’s chief executive, wrote in an email. “Other types of home sellers are just trying to catch up.”

The Journal has written about this phenomenon in recent weeks: Buyers hungry for discounts, particularly on foreclosures, are finding stubborn sellers who won’t relent on prices. And even for those lucky enough to find a home, they must compete with investors and all-cash buyers. The question is also whether banks are curtailing the number of foreclosures on the market to keep an upper hand, or if unloading them is simply slow and cumbersome.

Redfin looked at sales in 16 markets from January of last year through March of this year, zeroing in on a metric known as the “sale-to-list” price ratio (when the ratio is at 100%, on average, a home is selling at exactly its last list price). Distressed sales included both bank-owned properties and short sales, in which the bank approves the sale price.

Across the country, distressed sales continue to comprise a large percentage of sales, according to Redfin. They were 75% of total sales in Las Vegas; 63% in Phoenix; and 50% in San Diego.

Beyond the Media – National Home Values

The housing market still faces many challenges. High unemployment, foreclosures and other distress sales are keeping negative pressure on prices. This of course is good news if you are looking to buy as low rates and lower prices have brought affordability to record levels.
                            
How Affordable? -Since 1963, it has cost an average of approximately 43% of ‘per capita’ or individual income to finance the cost of a median priced home (20% down payment and prevailing 30 year fixed rate mortgage). Right now, it’s only about half of that cost at approximately 22%.

Are you holding off on a purchase for fear that prices might fall further? - Chances are that some sellers might be thinking the same thing. If you’re smart about it, you can use that as an advantage to strike the best possible deal on a home today for once sellers believe that prices have bottomed or are going back up, your advantage will be gone.

Rates are low today, who knows about tomorrow? – Gambling on the expectation of a lower price tomorrow at the risk of higher rates can cost much more in the long run than locking in a sure thing today. Ex. $200,000 30 Yr. fixed loan @ 5% = $1073/mo. today vs. $180,000 @ 7% = $1197 per month later.

Own, Rent or Borrow - One way or another, a home is something we all need every day. The numbers here tell the story and it’s no secret that values have fallen, yet over time, that’s not the case. As you can see by the chart, values over the last 10 years show very healthy appreciation. Can you say the same thing about stocks over the same period?

We don’t get a history lesson in the news because the news is about the moment and the more dramatic the better. That’s what sells advertising and that’s how they get paid. For the rest of us, taking a rational, longer term view of things makes more sense. This is particularly true when it comes to a home, for this is something we are likely to own for many years rather than just moments.

Why Housing Should Rebound In 2011

From smartmoney.com

 

There might finally be some good news this year about the nation’s dismal housing market. Or, at least, the bad news could stop

                                         

 Either way, it will be welcome relief for current homeowners as well as for potential real-estate investors. Reasons to be optimistic have been sadly lacking since the housing bubble burst in 2006

For sure, last week we learned the widely watched S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index fell 1% in December, its fifth straight decline. The index tracks 20 major markets.

But that figure belies real reasons to be optimistic, according to some experts. If they are right, it might make sense to jump into real estate. The trick is avoiding getting burned again, and it doesn’t necessarily mean owning a home.

First, let’s recap the economic signs a bottom is close.

Houses Are a Good Deal

Housing is the most affordable it has been in decades, according to analysts at Moody’s Analytics. They don’t just look at house prices. They also look at incomes.

Nationally, the cost of a house is the equivalent of about 19 months of total pay for an average family, the lowest level in 35 years. Prices usually average close to two years’ pay, although that varies nationally.

At the peak, midway through the last decade, a home in Los Angeles cost the equivalent of 4.5 years’ pay. The average price has since fallen to just over two years’ income now. That’s well below its pre-bubble average of 2.6 years. This means average Los Angeles homes are cheaper in “real terms” than they were typically during the period 1989 through 2003.

The opposite is true around the Washington beltway, where it will take 26 months of pay to buy a home, versus the historical norm of 22 months.

In the end, it will be affordability that will drive people to buy homes.

“Pricing is down so much in some markets that when you analyze renting versus owning it makes much more sense to own,” says Michael Larson, a real-estate analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla.

It is definitely bullish. But what about timing?

“Housing prices will probably bottom in 2011,” says Scott Simon, a managing director at money-management firm Pimco in Newport Beach, Calif. He foresaw the housing crash, helping his firm dodge losses that plagued Wall Street.

Mr. Simon says prices might dip another 5%. Still, in the scheme of things, that’s small. Consider this: In some markets, home prices have fallen by half or more since 2006.

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